The number of new listings on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) dropped sharply in 2024, mainly due to uncertainties around the government’s economic policies as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions. The situation is unlikely to be much different this year, with geopolitical tensions remaining high and a lower-than-expected rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.
DealStreetAsia spoke to some industry experts on their market outlook for the year, but surprisingly, several of them expressed optimism despite the myriad challenges.
As of December 17, 2024, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) recorded 40 new listings, raising a total of 10.2 trillion rupiah. This is significantly lower than 2023, which saw 79 new listings with a total fundraising of 54.1 trillion rupiah.
Source: IDX
However, the year closed with two big IPOs, including those of energy firm PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk and retail firm PT Daya Intiguna Yasa Tbk. And, there are at least three companies expected to list in the first quarter of this year, including PT Raharja Energi Cepu Tbk, PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses Tbk, and PT Delta Giri Wacana Tbk.
| Company | Fundraising (in billion IDR) | Sector | Listing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk | 4,321 | Energy | Dec 5, 2024 |
| PT Daya Intiguna Yasa Tbk | 4,156 | Retail | Dec 19, 2024 |
| PT Raharja Energi Cepu Tbk | 624.46 | Oil and gas | Jan 8, 2025 |
| PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses Tbk | 2,301 | Property | Jan 13, 2025 |
| PT Delta Giri Wacana Tbk | 1,033 | Fertilizer | Jan 10, 2025 |
Source: IDX
Dandy Firmansyah, Indonesian capital market partner at law firm Hiswara Bunjamin & Tandjung, noted that the IPO market in Indonesia, like many other emerging markets, has faced significant challenges in 2024. However, he believes the market could recover if key economic factors improve, such as stronger economic growth, a better investment climate, increased middle-class consumption, and a more stable global environment.
Companies with solid fundamentals, particularly in high-growth sectors, may still succeed in going public, provided investor sentiment improves and global conditions stabilise. “However, companies will need to be strategic in timing their IPOs and positioning themselves to attract both local and international investors,” he told DealStreetAsia.
Take DIY and Adaro Andalan, for instance. The companies decided to go for an IPO at the fag end of the year after careful strategic considerations and evaluating available opportunities.
“The timing of these IPOs (before the end of 2024) also reflects broader market opportunities and the companies’ ambitions to expand and strengthen their financial positions in a dynamic market environment,” he said.
With the economy showing some signs of a recovery — evidenced by returning consumer demand in key sectors like retail and energy, sustained growth, a rebound in commodity prices, and rising demand for energy and minerals — investors may look to cash in on the opportunity. Additionally, there is a growing need for capital to drive expansion and a strategic focus on maximising valuations.
Sharing a similar view, Maximilianus Nico Demus, Associate Director of Research and Investment at Pilarmas Investindo Sekuritas, noted that political instability in Indonesia, driven by the general elections, and external factors such as the US presidential elections, is contributing to market uncertainty. “Elections increase volatility in the country, causing the market to adopt a wait-and-see approach and hold back on risk-based investments, such as stocks,” he told DealStreetAsia.
For companies choosing to debut at the end of the year, this aligns with their strategy to capitalise on year-end window dressing, as many investors rebalance their portfolios by shifting to strong and promising companies, Demus added.
The underperformance of several recent IPOs has further eroded trust in new Indonesian listings, according to Demus. Among these, PT Mitra Pedagang Indonesia Tbk, a platform for SMEs, saw its stock price plummet by 78.35%, closing at 58 rupiah per share on Dec 20, 2024, compared to its IPO price of 268 rupiah.
Similarly, PT Indo American Seafood Tbk, a seafood producer, experienced a 73.2% decline from its IPO price of 250 rupiah to 67 rupiah per share. Additionally, PT Bersama Mencapai Puncak Tbk, a chicken restaurant operator, recorded a 78.41% drop from its IPO price of 278 rupiah to 60 rupiah per share.
| Name of Company | Sector | Fundraising (in billion IDR) | Listing Date | IPO Price (in IDR/Share | Stock Price (on Dec 20, 2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PT Mitra Pedagang Indonesia Tbk | Tech | 83.75 | Feb 7, 2024 | 268 | 58 |
| PT Indo American Seafoods Tbk | Agriculture | 72.5 | July 8, 2024 | 250 | 67 |
| PT Citra Nusantara Gemilang Tbk | Oil and gas | 179.62 | Jan 8, 2024 | 338 | 96 |
| PT Bersama Mencapai Puncak Tbk | Consumer goods | 62.55 | Feb 15, 2024 | 278 | 60 |
| PT Xolare RCR Energy Tbk | Basic materials | 72.18 | May 8, 2024 | 110 | 50 |
| PT Sinergi Multi Lestarindo Tbk | Basic materials | 81.48 | Jan 10, 2024 | 175 | 115 |
Source: IDN Financials
Outlook for 2025
The Indonesian IPO market in 2025, according to Firmansyah, will likely continue to be influenced by the country’s key economic pillars, including natural resources, commodities, and traditional sectors such as manufacturing, infrastructure, consumer goods, and retail.
However, diversification is expected to grow, with emerging sectors like technology, EV-related industries, renewable energy, financial services, and digital services gaining momentum.
Despite this, the IPO market is expected to stay cyclical and highly sensitive to global trends, commodity prices, and domestic economic reforms, which could cause shifts in the IPO pipeline depending on broader market conditions.
Albeit, he said that a rebound in the Indonesian IPO market in 2025 is possible, especially if key economic factors align. The growth of the tech and digital economy, strong government support for businesses (such as initiatives in infrastructure, renewable energy, and EV-related sectors), and a potential recovery in global markets could all significantly boost the IPO market.
“However, the extent of this rebound will depend on Indonesia’s ability to navigate broader global challenges, including inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical stability,” he said.
Roshan Raj Behera, a partner at Redseer Strategy Consultants, anticipates a rebound in the IPO market this year. He noted that improving market sentiment will be the primary driver of increased IPO activity.
“We expect a broad-based uptrend in IPO activity, with greater participation from new-economy, digital, and tech companies in 2025. While traditional companies will see an increased number of IPOs, they are likely to lose market share to their new-economy and tech counterparts,” he told DealStreetAsia.
Big IPOs next year are likely to come from Indonesian state-owned enterprises (SOEs). However, these plans are closely tied to the certainty of the role of Indonesia’s mega investment firm, Danantara, as seven SOE firms are expected to be included under its umbrella, according to a source familiar with the matter.
Of the seven SOEs, three companies — PT Pertamina, PT PLN, and PT MIND ID — are not yet listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The other four, PT Bank Mandiri Tbk, PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk, PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk, and PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk, are already listed.
Viska Kharisma, a partner at Hiswara Bunjamin & Tandjung, also noted that some state-owned enterprises (SOEs), such as MIND ID and Pupuk Kaltim, will likely go public within the next one to two years.
As a holding company in the mining industry, MIND ID has strong prospects, particularly as the government has long-term plans to support the development of both the renewable energy and mining sectors.
Kharisma also believes that Pupuk Kaltim holds promising prospects, as the fertiliser industry is crucial in supporting Indonesia’s agriculture sector.
Capital markets advisor at Deloitte Indonesia, Jasmin Maranan, stated that the IPO trend this year has been sluggish, as the market is still waiting for further clarity on fiscal and monetary policies under the new administration. In addition, the market is awaiting the outlook for the economy and domestic growth, which remains positive, driven by infrastructure developments under the new government.
Under the administration of President Prabowo Subianto, the IPO trend in Indonesia still has potential for growth, but there are several caveats. “Capital market regulators need to take significant steps to further enhance the attractiveness and liquidity of the market with the hope of boosting IPOs in 2025,” Maranan said in a statement.
Meanwhile, Iman Rachman, President Director of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), is optimistic that Indonesia’s stock market, including the IPO trend, will become increasingly active in 2025.
The IDX is targeting 66 new listings this year. ‘The assumption is based on the trend of declining inflation and global interest rates. The Fed lowered rates by 50 basis points and is expected to reduce [interest rates] again next year,” Rachman told the media last October.
Tech IPOs
On the lack of big tech IPOs in the archipelago recently, Hiswara’s Kharisma pointed out that only medium- to small-sized tech companies have listed on the IDX. She expects larger tech IPOs to take place in the next couple of years.
The resurgence of tech IPOs in 2025 will largely depend on how Indonesia navigates broader global economic challenges, including inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical stability.
Kharisma also noted that the OJK and IDX have been proactive in supporting startups and other Indonesian companies planning to go public, offering various seminars and resources to guide them through the IPO process.
Some sources also believe it will be difficult for big tech firms to go public in the short term. The experience of GoTo and Bukalapak IPOs continues to linger on investors’ minds, as both companies saw their valuations drop and share prices significantly decrease after their listing days. Bukalapak made its debut in 2021, raising 22 trillion rupiah in its IPO, while GoTo and Blibli went public in 2022, raising 13.7 trillion rupiah and 8 trillion rupiah, respectively.
“There is a need to establish an ecosystem that enables big tech companies to go public. This involves creating mature and later-stage tech firms, conducting pre-IPO funding rounds, and creating a strong base of retail investors. However, challenges remain, particularly from a valuation perspective, as there is still a lack of real confidence,” a source told DealStreetAsia.
For VC-backed companies, upcoming IPOs are likely to emerge from consumer goods sectors, with Kopi Kenangan being a strong contender, according to sources.
Backed by Horizon Ventures, Peak XV, B Capital, and others, Kopi Kenangan operates more like a consumer goods company despite leveraging an app-based business model. The company shows strong growth potential, with its valuation and profitability being well-understood by investors.
Ben Mathias, Managing Partner at Vertex Ventures, explained that the VC firm is not actively preparing for any IPOs at the moment, and there are no immediate IPO plans for its Indonesian portfolio companies. However, some of its companies in Indonesia are likely two to three years away from being IPO-ready.
Vertex Ventures has invested in several Indonesian companies, including TipTip, a marketplace for content creators and communities; aquatech firm Aruna; e-grocery startup Cosmart; e-commerce firm Sirclo; and others.
Vibhuti Sharma contributed to the story.
